Research
Featured topics:
- Q3 GDP & Consumer Spending Revised Up
- CRE Debt Climbs
- Local Governments and ARPA Spending
- Prologis 2023 Supply Chain Forecast
- Commercial Real Estate Prices
- Home Prices
- Independent Landlord Rental Performance
- Pending Home Sales
- PCE Inflation
- VTS Office Demand
1. Q3 GDP & CONSUMER SPENDING REVISED UP
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an upward revision to Real GDP in the third quarter of 2022, mainly reflecting a revised total in U.S. consumer spending. The latest estimate shows a 3.2% annualized increase in Real GDP during Q3 2022, revised up from the previous estimate of 2.9% and a reversal from the 0.6% decline seen in Q2.
• Upward revisions occurred in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. These revisions were partially offset by downward revisions seen in private inventory investment and exports.
• Both real incomes and spending are on the rise to close 2022. In November, personal income increased by $80.1 billion, or 0.4% annually, while personal consumption expenditures increased by $19.8 billion, or 0.1% annually.
• The spending-driven upward revision to growth is notable, given the ongoing analysis of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, its impact on investment, and the debate around the potential for a U.S. recession. Outside of housing and other rate-sensitive products, consumers have largely shaken off the Fed’s rate hikes in their spending decisions. Historically, it is atypical for an economy to enter a recession while real incomes and spending are accelerating.
