Economic Update - 4.1.22
Economic Update - 4.1.22

Featured topics:

  • Treasury Yield Inversion
  • Producer Price Index
  • Independent Landlord Rental Performance
  • Office Leasing Conditions
  • New Residential Construction
  • Housing Market Index
  • HUD Budget
  • Metro-Level Census Updates
  • Biden Tax Proposal
  • Industrial: Warehouse & Distribution


• The yields on the 5-year and 30-year US treasuries inverted on March 28th for the first time since 2006, raising fears of an upcoming recession.

• The yield on the 5-year note reached 2.56%, while the yield on the 30-year at one point fell as low as 2.55% (5-year yields rose higher throughout the session but did not coincide with an inversion with the 30-year).

• When investors demand more in return for shorter-term debt relative to longer-term debt, it can often signal a decrease in confidence about the near-term financial outlook, making the yield-curve inversion a popular recession signal. The last time that such a yield curve inversion occurred was in 2006, a couple of years before the Global Financial Crisis.

• Despite the inversion, the relationship that is often most looked upon by traders— the spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasury rates— remained positive while the S&P 500 posted gains on the day. However, as the Federal Reserve prepares to conduct several rate hikes in 2022, the risk of additional inversions will increase.