Research

Featured topics:

1. Futures Market Forecasts 75 bp Hike
2. Beige Book Analysis
3. CMBS Delinquencies
4. Single Family Rental CMBS Issuance
5. Independent Landlord Rental Performance
6. Consumer Sentiment
7. Jobs Report
8. Mall Visits Fall Across US
9. Manufacturing PMI
10. Post-GFC High for AD&C Loans

1. FUTURES MARKET FORECASTS 75 BP HIKE

• Fed Futures markets are now firmly predicting another 75-bps hike at the FOMC’s September meeting based on estimates from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

• Following the committee’s July meeting, future markets were initially forecasting a more moderate increase of 50 bps come the September meeting, as seen in May and June before the Fed turned up the heat. As of September 8th, 86.0% of the Fed Futures market forecasts a 75-bps hike at the Fed’s next meeting on September 20th-21st.

• Since late July, markets have digested several key data points, including above-expectations job growth, a rebound in consumer sentiment, and a modest but unconvincing decline in year-over-year inflation. During recent talks at the annual Jackson Hole Summit, Fed officials also maintained a relatively hawkish tone, signaling a sustained willingness to raise rates to tackle inflation.

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