- Futures Market Forecasts 75 bp Hike
- Beige Book Analysis
- CMBS Delinquencies
- Single Family Rental CMBS Issuance
- Independent Landlord Rental Performance
- Consumer Sentiment
- Jobs Report
- Mall Visits Fall Across US
- Manufacturing PMI
- Post-GFC High for AD&C Loans
1. FUTURES MARKET FORECASTS 75 BP HIKE
• Fed Futures markets are now firmly predicting another 75-bps hike at the FOMC’s September meeting based on estimates from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
• Following the committee’s July meeting, future markets were initially forecasting a more moderate increase of 50 bps come the September meeting, as seen in May and June before the Fed turned up the heat. As of September 8th, 86.0% of the Fed Futures market forecasts a 75-bps hike at the Fed’s next meeting on September 20th-21st.
• Since late July, markets have digested several key data points, including above-expectations job growth, a rebound in consumer sentiment, and a modest but unconvincing decline in year-over-year inflation. During recent talks at the annual Jackson Hole Summit, Fed officials also maintained a relatively hawkish tone, signaling a sustained willingness to raise rates to tackle inflation.
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