Research
SVN State of the Market Report 2025
MACROECONOMY & LABOR ENVIRONMENT
The Fed appears to have nailed its soft landing as inflation pressures gradually ease, and the US labor market continues to defy skeptics. As 2025 kicked off, real estate investors and operators were positioned for an upturn, while America’s CEOs are hopeful about the potential pro-business tax and regulatory policies proposed by the new administration.
Paradoxically, market uncertainty is higher today than one year ago. Curbs on trade and immigration cast doubt on our disinflationary path, while growth and deficit concerns are placing upward pressure on borrowing rates for US debt.
As of the writing of this year’s SVN State of The Market Update, 25% tariffs on America’s two largest trading partners were rolled out, then delayed for 30 days. Whether to view the looming tariffs as a negotiation tool or a permanent policy shift stumps even the most discerning game theorists, and the broader implications remain highly uncertain.
The uncertainty has left key stakeholders — including the FOMC, industry leaders, and consumers — stuck in wait-and-see mode as they assess the potential ripple effects. Nonetheless, if anything is certain, it’s that in uncertain waters, the US economy remains at the helm.
